Numi Cash Flow Analysis

Visual breakdown of the financial journey Updated: February 17, 2026 | Model v2.0 (variable cost $3.16/family — Gemini 3 Flash pricing)

BASE SCENARIO: Month-by-Month Cash Flow (36 months)

Year 1: Burning Cash, Building Foundation

Month  Families  Revenue    Costs      Net P/L    Loan Pmt   Cash Flow   Cumulative
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
M1     0         $0         $14,200    -$14,200   $0         -$14,200    -$14,200
M2-7   0         $0         $3,200     -$3,200    $0         -$3,200     -$33,400
M8     50        $1,246     $4,158     -$2,912    $0         -$2,912     -$36,312
M9     70        $1,911     $4,021     -$2,110    $0         -$2,110     -$38,423
M10    85        $2,410     $4,069     -$1,659    $0         -$1,659     -$40,082
M11    100       $2,908     $4,116     -$1,208    $0         -$1,208     -$41,289
M12    120       $3,573     $4,179     -$606      $0         -$606       -$41,895

EOY1 Status: - 120 families acquired - Cumulative loss: -$41,895 - Loan balance: $50,000 (untouched) - Monthly revenue: $3,573 - Still losing $606/month

Year 2: Turning Profitable, Repaying Loan

Month  Families  Revenue    Net P/L    Loan Pmt   Cash Flow   Cumulative   Loan Balance
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
M13    135       $4,072     -$555      $0         -$555       -$42,450     $50,000
M14    150       $4,570     $97        $49        $49         -$42,402     $49,952
M15    165       $5,069     $449       $225       $225        -$42,177     $49,727
M16    180       $5,568     $800       $400       $400        -$41,979     $49,426
M17    200       $6,233     $1,401     $701       $701        -$41,278     $48,726
M18    220       $6,898     $2,003     $1,001     $1,001      -$40,277     $47,724
M19    240       $7,563     $2,605     $1,302     $1,302      -$38,974     $46,421
M20    260       $8,228     $3,206     $1,603     $1,603      -$37,371     $44,818
M21    280       $8,893     $3,808     $1,904     $1,904      -$35,467     $42,914
M22    300       $9,558     $4,410     $2,205     $2,205      -$33,261     $40,709
M23    320       $10,223    $5,012     $2,506     $2,506      -$30,755     $38,203
M24    340       $10,888    $5,614     $2,807     $2,807      -$27,948     $35,396

EOY2 Status: - 340 families - Monthly profit: $5,614 - Loan payment: $2,807/month - Cumulative loss: -$27,948 - Loan balance: $35,396 (29% repaid) - On track to clear loan in Y3

Year 3: Loan Cleared, Cash Positive

Month  Families  Revenue    Net P/L    Loan Pmt   Cash Flow   Cumulative   Loan Balance
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
M25    360       $11,553    $6,216     $3,108     $3,108      -$24,841     $32,288
M26    380       $12,218    $6,818     $3,409     $3,409      -$21,432     $28,879
M27    400       $12,883    $7,420     $3,710     $3,710      -$17,723     $25,169
M28    420       $13,548    $8,021     $4,011     $4,011      -$13,712     $21,159
M29    440       $14,213    $8,623     $4,312     $4,312      -$9,400      $16,847
M30    460       $14,878    $9,225     $4,612     $4,612      -$4,787      $12,235
M31    480       $15,543    $9,827     $4,913     $4,913      $126         $7,322   CUMULATIVE POSITIVE!
M32    500       $16,208    $10,428    $5,214     $5,214      $5,340       $2,108
M33    520       $16,873    $11,030    $2,108     $8,922      $14,261      $0       LOAN REPAID!
M34    540       $17,538    $11,632    $0         $11,632     $25,894      $0
M35    560       $18,203    $12,234    $0         $12,234     $38,128      $0
M36    580       $18,868    $12,836    $0         $12,836     $50,964      $0

EOY3 Status: - 580 families - Monthly profit: $12,836 (100% retained, loan cleared) - Cumulative profit: $50,964 - Strong cash position for growth investment or distributions

OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO: Accelerated Path

Key Milestones Comparison

Milestone	Base Scenario	Optimistic Scenario	Difference
Break-even	Month 11 (100 fam)	Month 10 (105 fam)	1 month faster
First Monthly Profit	Month 14 ($97)	Month 12 ($598)	2 months faster
Cumulative Profit > 0	Month 31	Month 22	9 months faster
Loan Fully Repaid	Month 33	Month 24	9 months faster
EOY3 Cumulative Profit	$50,964	$359,988	7.1x higher

Optimistic Scenario: Year 3 Peak Performance

Month  Families  Revenue    Net P/L    Cumulative   Notes
----------------------------------------------------------
M25    800       $26,183    $19,455    $46,682      Loan cleared M24
M26    850       $27,846    $20,959    $67,642
M27    900       $29,508    $22,464    $90,106      Rotem transition trigger
M28    950       $31,171    $23,969    $114,075
M29    1000      $32,833    $25,473    $139,548
M30    1050      $34,496    $26,978    $166,526
M31    1100      $36,158    $28,482    $195,009
M32    1150      $37,821    $29,987    $224,996
M33    1200      $39,483    $31,491    $256,488
M34    1250      $41,146    $32,996    $289,483
M35    1300      $42,808    $34,500    $323,983
M36    1350      $44,471    $36,005    $359,988     Peak profitability

After Rotem Joins (Month 27+): - Monthly profit drops from $22,464 to $7,599 (adding $14,865 salary) - But cumulative cash already at ~$90K with loan cleared - Company sustainable at ~$7.6K/month profit for continued growth

Key Cash Flow Insights

1. The “Death Valley” (Months 1-13)

Deepest point: Month 13 (~-$42K cumulative)
Why: Startup costs ($11K) + pre-launch fixed costs + slow initial revenue
Survival: Requires the $50K loan to bridge this period
Risk: If growth slower than Base, valley deepens and extends

2. The Loan Repayment “Brake” (Months 14-33)

Effect: 50% of profit goes to loan, slowing cash accumulation
Trade-off: Honors Dorit’s investment but delays reinvestment
Duration: 19 months in Base, 12 months in Optimistic
After: Full profit flows to cash, accelerating growth

3. The Profitability Inflection (Month 12-16)

Base: Month 14 first positive month, Month 16 sustained
Optimistic: Month 12 first positive, Month 13 sustained
Critical: If not profitable by Month 16, revisit assumptions

4. The “Freedom Point” (Cumulative Profit > 0)

Base: Month 31 (Year 2.6)
Optimistic: Month 22 (Year 1.8)
Meaning: Company has fully recovered all startup losses
Implication: From here, all profit is “new money”

5. The Rotem Transition “Tax”

Cost: +$14,865/month (5.0x current fixed costs)
Requirement: $18,919/month sustainable profit (pre-salary)
Families needed: ~900 (Optimistic) or >600 (Base, not achieved in 36mo)
Timing: Realistically Year 3+ in best case

Cash Management Recommendations

Phase 1: Survival (Months 1-12)

Objective: Minimize burn, launch successfully

Actions: - Use loan for startup costs and fixed operating costs - Keep marketing <$1,000/month - No additional hiring - Focus on product-market fit with first 50 families

Success Criteria: - 80-120 families by EOY1 - Monthly burn <$3,200 - Proven conversion funnel

Phase 2: Climb to Profitability (Months 13-24)

Objective: Achieve sustained monthly profitability

Actions: - Increase marketing to $1,200-1,500/month only after M14 profitability - Maintain 50% loan repayment discipline - Optimize unit economics (reduce variable costs if possible) - Still no full-time hires

Success Criteria: - 250-340 families by EOY2 - Consistent monthly profit >$3,000 - Loan <50% remaining balance - Cumulative loss shrinking toward $0

Phase 3: Growth & Reinvestment (Months 25-36)

Objective: Clear loan, accumulate cash, scale operations

Actions: - Clear loan by M33 (Base) or M24 (Optimistic) - Invest in growth: marketing up to $2,000-3,000/month - Consider first full-time hire (support/operations, not Rotem yet) - Evaluate Rotem phased transition if >$12K/month profit

Success Criteria: - 500-1,350 families by EOY3 - Monthly profit >$10,000 - Cumulative cash >$50,000 - Loan fully repaid

Phase 4: Scale & Founder Transition (Months 37+)

Objective: Full-time founder commitment, aggressive growth

Actions: - Rotem transitions full-time (or 80% FTE phased) - Hire additional team (support, sales, marketing) - Invest in product improvements, automation - Consider first dividends or profit distributions to Dorit

Success Criteria: - >1,000 families - Monthly profit >$15,000 (after Rotem’s salary) - Annual revenue >$300,000 - Sustainable growth trajectory

Scenario Decision Tree

Month 12 Review:
-- <80 families?  -> ABORT: Growth too slow, reconsider business viability
-- 80-100 families -> CONSERVATIVE: Extend timeline, stay lean, reassess M18
-- 100-140 families -> BASE: On track, maintain discipline, target M33 loan repayment
-- >140 families   -> OPTIMISTIC: Accelerate growth, target M24 loan repayment, plan transition

Month 24 Review:
-- <200 families?  -> PROBLEM: Pivot or shutdown discussion
-- 200-300 families -> SLOW BASE: Extend transition timeline to Y4
-- 300-500 families -> BASE: Loan repaying, cumulative profit improving, stay course
-- >500 families   -> OPTIMISTIC: Loan cleared or nearly cleared, plan Rotem transition

Month 36 Review:
-- <400 families?  -> CRITICAL: Not sustainable long-term, major changes needed
-- 400-600 families -> STABLE: Profitable, loan repaid, but Rotem stays part-time
-- 600-1000 families -> STRONG: Profitable, growing, Rotem can transition in 6-12mo
-- >1000 families  -> THRIVING: Rotem full-time, hiring, strong growth trajectory

Alternative Scenarios & Sensitivities

What if variable costs increase to $5/family/month?

New break-even: 106 families (vs. 100) Impact on Base Scenario: - EOY1: -$826 monthly loss (vs. -$606) - EOY2: $4,588 monthly profit (vs. $5,614) - Loan repaid: Month 36 (vs. Month 33)

Mitigation: Negotiate better AI pricing, apply for Google Startups credits, or increase price to $429/year.

What if we can charge $449/year instead of $399?

New contribution margin: $34.26/family (vs. $30.09) Impact on Base Scenario: - EOY1: -$106 monthly loss (vs. -$606) — nearly profitable Y1! - EOY2: $7,294 monthly profit (vs. $5,614) - Loan repaid: Month 30 (vs. Month 33)

Recommendation: Test willingness to pay; even +$25 ($424/year) would significantly improve margins.

Final Recommendations

For Loan Repayment:

Maintain 50% allocation to balance Dorit’s priority and company growth
Target Base scenario (120 families Y1) as minimum viable path
Stretch for Optimistic (160 families Y1) to accelerate loan clearance
Review quarterly: If behind Base by >15%, adjust strategy

For Rotem Transition:

Plan for part-time through Y3 in Base scenario
Consider phased transition (50% -> 75% -> 100%) starting Y2.5 if hitting Optimistic growth
Alternative: Reduce salary expectation to $10K/month to enable earlier transition
Only go full-time if 3-month sustained profit >$18,919 AND loan cleared

For Cash Management:

Protect the cash cushion: Never dip below $5K operating cash
Reinvest only after profitability: Marketing increases ONLY after consistent profit
Plan for 3-year journey: Startup -> Profitability -> Sustainability -> Scale
Track metrics religiously: Family count, MRR, CAC, churn rate

Model files: - Full report: research/2026-02-17-model-rerun.md - Summary: financial-models-summary.md - Code: /Users/rotemlevi/numi_financial_models.py

Last updated: February 17, 2026 Model version: 2.0