Numi Financial
Models - Quick Reference Card
Updated: February 17, 2026 | Model v2.0 (variable
cost $3.16/family — Gemini 3 Flash pricing)
CRITICAL NUMBERS
| Metric |
Value |
| Break-even families |
100 families |
| Owner’s loan |
$50,000 (0% interest) |
| Monthly fixed costs |
$3,000 |
| Variable cost/family |
$3.16/month |
| Revenue/family |
$24.92/mo (founding), $33.25/mo (standard) |
| Contribution margin/family |
$21.76/mo (founding), $30.09/mo (standard) |
| Loan repayment rate |
50% of net profit |
| Rotem transition trigger |
$18,919/month profit x 3 months |
SCENARIO OUTCOMES (36 MONTHS)
| Scenario |
Y1 Families |
Y3 Families |
Loan Repaid |
Cumulative Profit |
Rotem Transition? |
| Conservative |
79 |
185 |
Not in 36mo |
-$63,930 (LOSS) |
No |
| Base |
120 |
580 |
Month 33 |
$50,964 |
Not in 36mo |
| Optimistic |
160 |
1,350 |
Month 24 |
$359,988 |
Month 27 |
KEY MILESTONES (BASE
SCENARIO)
| Milestone |
Month |
Families |
Details |
| Launch |
8 |
50 |
First revenue |
| Break-even (ops) |
11 |
100 |
Revenue > fixed + variable costs |
| EOY1 |
12 |
120 |
-$41,895 cumulative loss |
| First monthly profit |
14 |
150 |
$97/month |
| EOY2 |
24 |
340 |
$5,614/mo profit, -$27,948 cumulative |
| Cumulative profit > 0 |
31 |
480 |
Recovered all losses |
| Loan fully repaid |
33 |
520 |
All profit flows to cash |
| EOY3 |
36 |
580 |
$12,836/mo profit, $50,964 cumulative |
MONTHLY ECONOMICS AT KEY
POINTS
Month 12 (EOY1 - Base
Scenario)
Revenue: $3,573
Fixed costs: $3,000
Variable costs: $379 (120 families x $3.16)
Marketing: $800
Total costs: $4,179
Net profit/loss: -$606
Month 24 (EOY2 - Base
Scenario)
Revenue: $10,888
Fixed costs: $3,000
Variable costs: $1,074 (340 families x $3.16)
Marketing: $1,200
Total costs: $5,274
Net profit: $5,614
Loan payment: $2,807 (50%)
Cash after loan: $2,807
Month 36 (EOY3 - Base
Scenario)
Revenue: $18,868
Fixed costs: $3,000
Variable costs: $1,833 (580 families x $3.16)
Marketing: $1,200
Total costs: $6,033
Net profit: $12,836
Loan payment: $0 (repaid M33)
Cash retained: $12,836
ROTEM TRANSITION
ECONOMICS (OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO)
Before Transition (Month 26)
Families: 850
Revenue: $27,846
Net profit: $20,959
Rotem salary: $0 (part-time at Bigabid)
Cash available: $20,959/month
At Transition (Month 27)
Families: 900
Revenue: $29,508
Fixed costs: $3,000 -> $17,865 (+$14,865 Rotem)
Net profit: $22,464 -> $7,599
Loan status: Fully repaid (M24)
Cumulative cash: $90,106
Post-Transition
Sustainability
Monthly profit: $7,599
Rotem salary: $14,865 (55,000 ILS)
Current salary: $14,141 (52,323 ILS at Bigabid)
Salary increase: +$724/month
Company remains: Profitable at $7,599/mo
GO/NO-GO DECISION POINTS
Month 12 (End of Year 1)
| Family Count |
Decision |
| <80 families |
ABORT - Not viable, shut down or pivot |
| 80-100 families |
REASSESS - Continue cautiously, target 200 by M24 |
| 100-140 families |
BASE TRACK - Maintain discipline, target 340 by M24 |
| >140 families |
OPTIMISTIC - Accelerate growth, plan for scale |
Month 24 (End of Year 2)
| Family Count |
Decision |
| <200 families |
SHUTDOWN - Business not sustainable |
| 200-300 families |
SLOW GROWTH - Extend timelines, no transition |
| 300-500 families |
ON TRACK - Loan repayment on schedule |
| >500 families |
THRIVING - Plan Rotem transition in Y3 |
Month 36 (End of Year 3)
| Family Count |
Decision |
| <400 families |
PROBLEM - Major changes needed |
| 400-600 families |
STABLE - Profitable but Rotem stays part-time |
| 600-1000 families |
STRONG - Rotem can transition soon |
| >1000 families |
SCALE - Rotem full-time, hire team |
QUICK CALCULATIONS
How many families to hit $X
profit?
For families > 50 (standard pricing, accounting for founding discount):
Monthly Profit = (50 x $21.76) + (F - 50) x $30.09 - $3,000 - Marketing
= F x $30.09 - $4,617
Solving for F:
F = (Target Profit + $4,617) / $30.09
Examples:
- $5,000/mo profit -> (5,000 + 4,617) / 30.09 = 320 families
- $10,000/mo profit -> (10,000 + 4,617) / 30.09 = 486 families
- $18,919/mo profit (Rotem trigger) -> (18,919 + 4,617) / 30.09 = 783 families
Note: The $4,617 constant = $3,000 (fixed) + $1,200 (marketing) +
$417 (founding discount on first 50 families: 50 x ($30.09 - $21.76) =
50 x $8.33 = $417).
When will loan be repaid?
Remaining Loan = $50,000 - (Sum of all prior payments)
Months to Repay ~ Remaining Loan / (Monthly Profit x 50%)
At Month 24 (Base):
Remaining = $35,396
Monthly profit = $5,614
Payment/mo = $2,807
Months to clear ~ $35,396 / $2,807 = 12.6 months
(Actual: ~9 months due to growing profit -> Model: M33)
RISK FACTORS
| Risk |
Impact |
Mitigation |
| Slower growth than Base |
Loan not repaid, losses continue |
Review M12, pivot or shut down |
| Higher variable costs |
Break-even moves to 110+ families |
Negotiate better cloud/AI pricing |
| Lower conversion rate |
More families needed to hit revenue |
Improve product, pricing, marketing |
| Churn >5%/month |
Revenue plateau or decline |
Focus on retention, customer success |
| Rotem transitions too early |
Company unprofitable, unsustainable |
Wait for 3-month sustained trigger |
SUCCESS INDICATORS
| Indicator |
Target |
Frequency |
| Monthly new families |
10-15 (Base), 20-30 (Optimistic) |
Monthly |
| Churn rate |
<3% per month |
Monthly |
| CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost) |
<$150 |
Quarterly |
| LTV (Lifetime Value) |
>$600 (18mo avg tenure) |
Quarterly |
| Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR) |
Growing 10-15% MoM |
Monthly |
| Net Profit Margin |
Target 40%+ at scale |
Quarterly |
Model Files
- Quick reference:
financial-quick-reference.md (this
file)
- Detailed summary:
financial-models-summary.md
- Cash flow analysis:
cash-flow-analysis.md
- Full month-by-month:
research/2026-02-17-model-rerun.md
- Python model:
/Users/rotemlevi/numi_financial_models.py
Run the model yourself:
cd /Users/rotemlevi
python3 numi_financial_models.py
Last updated: February 17, 2026 Model
version: 2.0